USD Forex Trading Analysis for Forex Traders

he USD is trading firmer to start New York this morning after a slow start in Asia; traders have been waiting for the return of US trading before large volumes were seen. Cross-spreaders and option defense started the overnight session as EURO/JPY sales initially rallied the majors to highs overnight before the USD began to gain in Europe.

Disappointing UK economic data and poor German industrial production numbers pressured both GBP and EURO through the European session knocking both pairs into lows ahead of New York. Cable traded to a low print at 1.9666 as stops fired off under the 1.9700 handle again; traders note that the GBP appears to be trading in a very large triangle/wedge pattern suggesting a lot of potential two-way action over several handles may result.

Now that we are in the “summer doldrums” it is possible that the technical picture will remain more viable for short-term traders and it is my view that the GBP will cover a lot of the same ground twice. EURO sold off briefly into stops under the 1.5700 handle for a low print at 1.5610 before solid bids were seen. Traders report that model accounts were on the offer with large orders at the 1.5630/40 area; also of note the 50 bar MA comes in today at 1.5582 which may offer support on further weakness.

EURO has a strong exponential sell signal from Thursday last week and the rate is likely going to correct into solid support a bit further down in my view. Good quality buys may be seen in the next 24-48 hours. USD/JPY rallied to our limit entry point overnight and aggressive traders should be short at the 107.50 area; high prints so far overnight 107.72 in line with the 200 bar MA.

USD JPY Forex Trading Analysis for Forex Traders

Upside limited now that rate clears stops ahead of 107.80 area; option defense ahead of 108.00. 200 bar MA likely to cap the rate near term. Rate firms up on large cross-spreading traders say; resting order at the 107.50 area to sell the rate should be filled.

Bids noted at 105.70/80 area suggesting a firm bottom is in near-term. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but a correction is coming and should be a low-volume affair. Offers layered to 107.50 some desks report so upside may be labored above the 106.50 area; Expect more two-way action.

USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 108.40/50
Resistance 2: 108.20
Resistance 1: 107.80
Latest New York: 107.57
Support 1: 106.80
Support 2: 106.50
Support 3: 106.20

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

1:00am JPY Economy Watchers Current Index
7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m

EURO USD Forex Trading Analysis for Day Traders

Rate drops on stops and aggressive selling; model accounts on the offer traders say around the 1.5630/40 area. Major support at the 1.5580 area and slightly below. Stops elected under the 1.5700 area but option defense reported at 1.5650 area.

Highs were sold aggressively by Asian sovereigns Wednesday traders say. Lots of stops building under the 1.5770 area were cleared overnight and a further break lower is likely on whipsaw today. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5600 to 1.5550 traders say.

Should cable break—EURO could go with it. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. Exponential reversal still valid.

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5780
Resistance 2: 1.5750
Resistance 1: 1.5700/10
Latest New York: 1.5656
Support 1: 1.5600/10
Support 2: 1.5580
Support 3: 1.5550

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

Nil

Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis

Rate falls back in sympathy with EURO; rate is under pressure from stops. Volumes lighter into the lows. Stops and technical buying seen from some desks, buying seen from semi-official names on Friday and possibly the early higher action today signals a bottom is in. Stopped out of another long but keep looking at the long side.

Rate has likely flushed out every long now and shorts will likely take gains soon leaving the rate vulnerable to a sharp rally. Possible buying from semi-official names so watch the news. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.9300/10
Resistance 2: 1.9280
Resistance 1: 1.9250/60
Latest New York: 1.9093
Support 1: 1.9050/60
Support 2: 1.9020
Support 3: 1.9000

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

4:30am GBP CPI y/y

4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y

4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y

4:30am GBP RPI y/y

Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com

USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Fears of continuing global slow-down of the major world economies continues to benefit the USD this morning as flight-to-quality buying and deleveraging liquidation drive the majors lower. Most pairs are at new 2008 lows to start New York with USD/JPY holding firmer near the 93.50 area after an attempt at lows was stopped cold in Asia.

Despite weaker stock markets around the world overnight traders continue to pile into USD as investors continue to boycott the buy side of almost everything. Commodities were lower with Crude specifically edging toward $59/BBL after OPEC cut production on Friday; most traders note that if Oil should fall farther than around $55 the bull market would be over and the pressure on global recession would dramatically change.

In my view, the continued panic in world markets is reaching the oversold mark as the deleveraging must be nearing its end. Forced liquidation of assets only takes a week or so to work through the system and volumes are dropping off on this dips. The Greenback may finally be nearing the end of its unexpected bull run. Overnight G7 comments say the excessive moves in the Yen are undesirable and the G7 hints at intervention.

Although intervention is unlikely, a coordinated rate cut led by the Fed this week is certainly on the table. Depending on how the market is priced prior to the news if the Fed cuts rates by 75 BP the USD could drop as traders re-price risk. For the record, overnight the GBP fell as stocks dropped to a low print at 1.5275; pressure is still on from Friday's UK GDP numbers.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Volatility increases as rate is whipsawed by G7 news; follow-on selling finds bids at prior low. Bounce off the lows yesterday leaves a healthy bid wick suggesting some upside coming soon but today is an inside range so far. Traders note liquidity is still thin. Rate at new support level but ranges appears wider.

Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere but buyers have been stepping up for 1000 points now; many likely sidelined. Aggressive traders can buy anytime but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue.

Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: ?
Resistance 2: ?
Resistance 1: 1.6330
Latest New York: 1.5397
Support 1: 1.5260
Support 2: ?
Support 3: ?

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)

7:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales

Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com

EURO USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

More lows overnight; panic drives trade and liquidity remains low. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. IFO overnight shows decline in business sentiment; helps drive trade lower. Option barriers reported on the dip but those are cleared. Official interest noted traders say but rate continued to sell-off.

Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can't see further weakness being ignored by the buyers but conditions are not right I think. Oil pressure likely spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers.

Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3050
Resistance 2: 1.3000/10
Resistance 1: 1.2800
Latest New York: 1.2434
Support 1: 1.2330
Support 2: ?
Support 3: ?

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)

3:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate

Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com

Forex Trader

Forex Trader

When you are a forex trader and you are just starting out in the forex market it can be very scary and that is one of the reasons why you should always make sure that you take the time to learn every piece of information that you can about being a forex trader as well as being a forex trader in the forex market. In order to be a successful forex trader, you are going to need to make sure that you understand what being a forex trader is all about, this includes what you will be doing in the forex market and the stresses that accompany the forex market that affect you as the individual trader. As a forex trader you will have the choice to be the actual trader your self or you can choose to use a forex broker, it is entirely up to you but you need to make sure that you are one hundred percent sure before you take the steps to enter the forex market as a forex trader. There are many beginners out there that take that leap and don’t know what they are doing; this is not something that I would advise you to do. Even the forex traders that have been in the market for years will tell you that they are still learning about the market because of the fact that the market is always changing.

Beginning as a Forex Trader

It was in the middle of the nineteen ninety’s that many of the beginners as forex traders took that leap of faith and stepped into the forex market which at that time was just being introduced to the self trader. However, today the forex market is becoming more and more popular and there are many beginners as well as investors that are experienced that are running toward forex trading because of the fact that it is the largest as well as the most profitable not to mention the most liquid and also the fastest growing market that is located within the world. It is very important if you are beginning as a forex trader that you take every single second of the time that you need to make sure that you are able to learn the trading skills. You are also going to need to make sure that you take the time to practice every single bit of information that you learn as well and you can do this by opening up a demo account before you take that leap of faith and jump into the forex market trading real money. A demo account allows you to trade fake money so that you are able to get an idea about how good you really are. One thing for sure that you should always remember as a forex trader is that you never want to trade money that you can’t afford to lose.

Experienced Forex Trader

If you are an experienced forex trader and you are looking into continuing your personal development as a forex trader there are a couple of things that you are going to want to keep in mind. If you are already a forex trader and you are just looking into bringing your knowledge up a notch you may want to consider forex trader mentoring which is teaching other people that are interested in forex trading the ability to self trade with their own individual funds on the forex market and the second way that you can bring things up a notch is by professional forex market trading and that is actually where you are the individual trader that handles the other people’s funds so that you are able to generate or make profits for the actual investment clientele. No matter how long you have been a forex trader there are always options that are available to you so that you are able to become better at what you do. If you are an experienced trader, you are going to want to make sure that you take the time to really learn about the options that you have to become more and more experienced. If you choose to help other people learn how to trade on the forex market you are giving them a piece of you and that in turn will make you a better trader. You may run across a case where you meet someone that knows something that you don’t and you can allow them to teach you what you don’t know.

Currency Exchange Rate

Currency Exchange Rate

In the subject of finance, you are going to find that the actual currency exchange rate actually is know to be used to describe what one type of currency is actually worth in value based on a different individual type of currency. If you are going to be trading in the actual FX market, it is going to be very important that you know what a currency exchange rate actually is due to the actual fact that refers to the whole fx market is actually known as the biggest financial market in the whole entire world in which it makes around one point nine trillion dollars in just one day of trading whereas that is more than all the other financial markets put together. Another term that you are going to need to know is known as a spot exchange rate and it is also actually is mainly used for other in relationship to a currency exchange rate which is most current. If you hear the terms forward exchange rate it is important that you understand that it is used in relationship to a currency exchange rate which is traded as well as quoted with in today’s time however the actual delivery of the trade doesn’t take place until a date that takes place in the future.

About the Exchange Rate Regime in Reference to a currency exchange rate

When you are trading if you actually hear someone that is chatting about what is known as the actual currency exchange rate regime, you should know that they are actually taking the time to talk about the individual a certain way that an individual country is able to manage as well as handle the currency in reference to the actual respect of the different foreign countries as well as the FX market. You will also find that indeed there are several different varieties of the actual currency exchange rate regime that you are going to need to know about as a trader in the markets. The first one that you are going to need to know about is known as the floating currency exchange rate in which is known to indicate factors that the actual market dictates the movements that are related to a currency exchange rate. The second that you are going to need to know about is known as the pegged float in which it is known in relationship to the situation in which the well known central bank has a way to keep a currency exchange rate actually from being able to deviate against the actual target band and in other words value. There is also a currency exchange rate that is pegged as well which is known to tie one currency in relationship with a different individual type of currency. In all actuality when you think about the individual rates of floating exchange you will learn that they are indeed the most well known commonly used rates when it comes to the exchange rate regime. You should also know that the individual currencies which are more likely to float is the Yen which is Japanese not to mention the United States Dollar and the Euro, however keep in mind that this information is based around the actual fact that refers to the central banks indeed are actually the individual currencies which are most likely to interfere so that they can have the ability to have the ability to actually avoid the excessive appreciation as well as the depreciation. Another thing that you should keep in mind is that these regimes in particular are referred as a managed float because someone or something else controls them.

Day Trading Technique

Day Trading Technique

In the following article, you will learn about the day trading techniques that you can use when you are participating in day trading as well as some keys that you should use as well so that you are able to be successful at day trading. It is very important that you are able to understand the key components that are attached to the successful day trades that will in turn actually help you to be able to develop a strategy that you can use for day trading that will be able to produce the strong profits in the different environments that can be associated with the market. One day trading pointer that you should keep in mind is that when you are day trading you should always take the time to cut the losers in a rather quickly manner. This is one thing that can not actually be emphasized enough and it is well known that day trading is actually not about the percentage of the winners that you have. The second pointer when it comes to day trading is that you should make sure that the profits that you make from day trading are maximized. What this means is that you should let the winners that you have ride. The third tip that you should remember is that you should be able to follow the individual stocks in a constant manner because of the fact that day trading is about being able to spot the price patterns as well as the breakouts and the different opportunities that may arise for trading.

Learning about Day Trading Technique

The day trading technique that you decide to use is entirely up to you and is based on the information that you learn about day trading altogether. If you are interested in learning about the different approaches to day trading techniques there are a lot of different websites that you can use as resources and references when you are looking up information on day trading and the day trading techniques. If you are not able to find the information that you are looking for on the internet, you can always take the time to look for information in other places such as in books and you can also ask some other people that are currently participating in day trading. There are many online forums and chat rooms that you can get into where you will be able to talk to different people about day trading as well as day trading techniques; however it is important that you keep in mind that what works for someone else may not work for you and vice versa.

Online Futures Trading

Online Futures Trading

Just like with any other type of trading, there are risks that are involved with online futures trading as well. No matter what you are trading, if it is equities or options, commodities or futures as well as forex there will always be some sort of risk that is involved. When it comes to the risk that is involved with online futures trading, the higher the risk the better your chances are to actually be able to gain profit from the actual trade. One thing that you should keep in mind is that when you are trading commodities along with futures contracts that you will be entitled to a rather large amount of earnings and you will also have the chance that you may suffer from some big losses as well. However, if you take the time to study the markets as well as trading you should have nothing to worry about. One thing that you are going to make sure that you keep in mind is that there is not one single individual trader that is currently successful at trading on the markets that has not suffered from a loss at one point and time during their trading career. The number one reason that a trader is able to become successful is because of the fact that they are able to minimize the occurrence as well as the amount of loss by being able to follow the strict online futures trading principles.

Futures Trading Plan and Online Future Trading

With online futures trading just like any other type of trading, you are going to learn that you have to have money in order to be able to trade because money is one of the main essentials and it is what makes the markets go round. However, you are also going to need an online futures trading plan as well. When you have found an online future trading plan, you are going to make sure that this plan actually is built on your individual trading personality as well as the style that you portray when you are trading. Another thing that you are going to want to make sure that your online futures trading plan relates to is your current economic status not to mention the futures of interest. You should also base your online futures trading plan on the capital that you are able to invest in trading as well as the experience that you have as a trader as well. In relationship to online futures trading, you want to make sure that you know if you invest small amounts you are going to be putting a limit on the options that you have and you should also keep in mind that if you invest larger amounts of money you are going to be inviting higher losses. One thing that you should always keep in mind when it comes to online futures trading is that you should never invest money that is going to affect the way that you are living.

Online Futures Trading and the Four Basic Principles

When you are participating in trading, it is very important that you follow the four basic principles of trading. The first of the four basic principles is that you know how to manage your risks, the second of the four basic principles is that you are able to minimize your losses, the third of the four basic principles is that you are able to trade with the trend and the fourth of the four basic principles is that you let the profits that you make run. The ability to manage the risks that are involved ten to get better as you gains knowledge about trading. In fact the ability to manage the risks that are involved is known to withhold a lot which includes the mini contracts and the ability to avoid the markets that are considered to be extremely volatile. You should also make sure that you pay very close attention to the surprise reports and the global trend as well as the ability to preserve money for the actual profits. As a trader you are going to learn if you haven’t already that reducing the amounts of loss is the hardest rule that you can actually take the time to practice. If you are really interested in managing the risk you are going to have to be able to walk away from a trade even at times when the market has turned against your very own predictions.

Forex trade

Forex trade

When it comes to forex trading in the forex market, it is very important that you take the time to learn forex trade. When you take the time to learn forex trade you are not just learning about the history of forex but you are also learning how to trade forex as well. There are many aspects of forex trading that you will learn over the course of time as you are preparing your self to enter the world of the forex market and believe me, you are going to need to make sure that you take the time to really learn forex trade so that you are able to become a very successful trader in the forex market. There are going to be times when you are going to get disappointed when you lose and you are going to be excited when you win but overall if you know about forex you can use that information to help you see more wins than losses and that will make you feel better about the market itself. In the following article, I would like to take the time to tell you everything that you need to know so that you are able to learn forex trade.

The Ability to Forex trade

When it comes to trading forex you are going to find that it is very exciting as well as potentially very profitable however you should always keep in mind that there are risk factors that are associated with trading forex that play a significant role in trading as well. When you learn forex trade you will be able to understand the importance of you knowing as well as understanding the implications when it comes to margin trading as well as the pitfalls and the opportunities that are associated with the trading offers that are in relationship to the foreign exchange. If you decide to use a service like forex trading.com you will be able to discuss any doubt that you have when it comes to an aspect of trade with one of the dealers that they have you will also be able to enjoy that it is available to you twenty four hours a day on the actual Saxobank internet trading system that is known as SaxoTrader. When it comes to SaxoTrader you will find that the actual benchmark of their services is known to be efficient execution as well as concise analysis not to mention expertise and they are all able to be achieved while they are maintaining a competitive as well as attractive cost structure.

Forex trade and Saxobank

In current times, Saxobank is known to offer one of the premier services that are known to be all round and is located in Europe when it comes to trading in products that are derivative as well as forex. It is known that they count on their employees as well as the numerous dealers and also the analysts in whom each individual has many years of experience as well as a broad and varied knowledge when it comes to the markets in which has been able to gain both in the home countries as well as in the financial centers that are located internationally as well. If you decide to learn forex trade with Saxobank you will be able to have a twenty four hour service that relates to the trading of foreign exchange as well as futures and also other products that are derivate, you will also be able to enjoy the daily analysis as well as having the ability to have individual access to the department that specializes in the research as well as the analysis that is there for the special queries that you may have. You will also be able to enjoy immediate execution of your individual traders which will take place through the international network that is made up of banks as well as brokers. You will find that the price of these services is considerably lower when you take them into comparison with the other companies.

Forex Trading Course

Forex Trading Course

In the following article I am going to give you a forex trading course in relationship to the terms that you are going to need to know as a forex trader. There are many different forex trading courses out there that you can take to become a very successful forex trader however, I believe that it is the simple forex trading courses that seem to teach you the most so I am going to take the time to cover almost every term that you are going to need to know as a successful forex trader. When you take the time to choose a forex trading course, make sure that you understand all of the different courses that you can take, the best way that you can learn about all of the forex trading courses is by getting online and checking out the different courses that are available to you.

Forex Trading Course on Terms

The following terms are the terms that are associated with forex trading that you are going to need to know if you are going to be trading forex. The first term that you should know is accrual, accrual is actually the actual appointment of the premiums as well as the discounts that are in place on the forward exchange transactions that are known to relate in a direct manner to the actual deposit swap which is known as the interest arbitrage deals which takes place over the individual period that is associated with each individual deal. The second term that you should known is adjustment, this is a term that is used to describe an official action that is normally related to a change that takes place in the actual economic policies that are internal so that they are able to correct the imbalance that is located in the actual payment or it can be based on a change that is related to the official currency rate. The next term that you should take the time to learn is known as appreciation and it is used to refer to a currency that is known to appreciate at the times that it strengthens in the actual price in what is known as a response to the actual market demand. Another term that you are going to know is that arbitrage is used to describe the actual purchase or the actual sale of a certain instrument as well as the simultaneous taking of what is known as an equal as well as opposite position in what is known as a related market an arbitrage is used in order to be able to take advantage of the differentials that are located in the small prices that are located between the markets.

Forex Trading Course and the Terms that are Associated with Forex

Learning forex is all about learning the terms that are associated with it, there are so many different terms that you are going to need to know when you are trading forex that it is going to be often hard to be able to keep up with all of them. However, you should never think that they are not important because the longer that you are trading in the forex market, the more you will realize the different terms and there main importance to the market. When it comes to the term balance of trade it stands for the actual value that is concerned with the country’s exports subtracting the imports of that country as well. A bar chart is definitely something that you need to know because it is a certain type of chart that relates to significant points in which there are four of them. With the bar chart you have the high as well as the low, these are the points that form the individual vertical bar, and then you have the opening price that is known to be marked with the horizontal line which is to the actual left of the bar and then you have the closing price which is the horizontal line that is located to the right of the bar.

Forex Trading Course Overall

There are many different forex trading courses that you have to choose from however you are going to find out what type of learner you are so that you can choose what type of forex trading course is the right one for you. Everyone learns on a different basis and this is one of the things that you need to know so that you are able to become a very successful trader.

Can Dollar Hold Ground?

Can Dollar Hold Ground?
Dollar selling still continue, and this week we're seeing more and more of it, but the pair had a hard time clearing the 1.5850 resistance level on the way to challenging the 1.5900 all time highs against the euro.
Perhaps the bears are starting to run out of steam. Certainly the economic data gave them little to chew on this week.
Overall the results were a bit mixed as housing data and personal income showed some mild improvement but Durable goods once again missed to the downside. At best one could say that the US fundamentals have not become dramatically worse and that was enough to keep dollar bears at bay.

The pair remains at standstill as traders look for new themes to develop. Last week we noticed that "With EURUSD having run out of stream at 1.5900 early last week, near term momentum has shifted to dollar bulls. They will however, need further negative surprises out of the Eurozone in order push the pair lower. Otherwise, assuming there are no additional exogenous shocks, the currency market may simply meander aimlessly for the rest of the week in very narrow trading range."

Using Currencies To Time Equity Moves

Using Currencies To Time Equity Moves
As many traders and analysts took the advantage of this growing correlation between asset classes to forecast movements in one market by analyzing the changes.
However, while using the changes in equities to forecast price action in risk-sensitive currency pairs has grown in popularity, the reverse (using FX moves to anticipate changes in the equities market) has not. And, considering the currency market’s deep liquidity and 24-hour session, overlooking such an advantage would be missing out on one of the best strategies in current market conditions.

US Dollar: Calmer Times Ahead?

US Dollar: Calmer Times Ahead?
March certainly was the active month in the online forex trading and currency market. The Euro against the U.S. Dollars, hit an all time high less than 100 pips away from 1.60 value meanwhile USD/JPY fell to an intra day low of 95.76 value. Those daily ranges of these two currencies have also expanded as 1 month volatility in the Euro against U.S. Dollars went the highest price since 2004. This suggests that volatility has hit a abnormal rate, which means that it may soon turn back to the mean. In other words, the days of 200 pip changes in range between the Euro and U.S. Dollars will might be changing very soon until will not exist.
The price action in the U.S. Dollars post non-farm payrolls indicate that the traders are very divided on the outlook for the USD and more specifically US monetary policy. Three consecutive months of job losses warrant a rate cut from the Fed Reserve, as we see it the job numbers alone may not be enough to convince the Fed to cut 50bp instead of 25.
Next week, there are not enough economic data for speculations that could help shed more light on what is going to be the action the Fed Reserve should take during the end of the March.

The only important U.S. data on this frame of time is the trade balance and import prices as well as consumer confidence that are unfortunately not not to be discussed this week.

USD can surge soon.

USD can surge soon. Posted on Apr-30-2008 by Linda Harrington

There is no change as ForexCult.com consider it as for USD being stronger, never the less and even though the EUR went up by a few pips today we still think it might get bullish especially against the EUR and AUD which are the clearest patterns in the technical analysis by fibo graphs.
As mentioned yesterday in an article published, the initial EURUSD target is not before 1.5230. The initial AUDUSD objective is at 0.9152.

Dollar Rally on the way up at full throttle

This phase of the USD rally up has now picked up and if all speculation are correct this should continue.
In particular the speculations that seems to be most accurate are the EURUSD and AUDUSD which patterns are most clear by all means of technical research and analysis While not as clear, there are GBPUSD and NZDUSD counts that suggest substantial losses going forward.

After hitting the highest record above 1.60, the EUR/USD has now fallen over 400 pips. The failure to extend and flow far beyond 1.60 should not be incredibly surprising if you have been following the Daily Fundamentals and graphs, as some which shows bullish behavior as it concern the EUR.

According to our Daily Technicals report, the EUR/USD is in the process of undergoing its 4th wave correction and support does not begin until 1.4667, long term investors should watch those fibo lines carefully.

USD: Selectivity Remains the Key

The USD has satisfied the bulls and bears in this week the question is in which pair as the bull and in which is the bear.
ForexCult.com mentioned that "although we expect a continual rally in the USD, traders need to be careful of what they buy." having that said because we had indicated that the USD could rally against the Eur and GBP but was turning resistance very close against the JP Yen.
Those moves that we were looking have already happened and are now becoming a bit over extended. However and for the most, the downtrend in the USD against the JP Yen and its up trends against the Euro currency and GBP should remain intact but being more precise will continue to be the key to trading currencies in the near future.
The marquee event of the week will be the United States retail sales report and even though it seems that consumer spending will falter, it may be a bit better and not such a bad report as market and speculator might have suggested.
The drop in consumer confidence and non-farm payrolls point to weakness, but the coming rise in food and the energy prices along with the stronger earnings from local companies such as Wal-Mart and Costco probably suggest otherwise.
The main reason why the market got a huge response to this report is because of its affect on a central bank's monetary policy decision. However with the Fed, a pause in Jun has already been discounted by the market.

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Spread on Majors*

EUR/USD: 3 pips
GBP/USD: 4 pips
AUD/USD: 4 pips
USD/CHF: 4 pips
USD/JPY: 3 pips
USD/CAD: 5 pips
*Spreads during normal market conditions

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Oil crisis affect the USD. how exactly? find out.

Oil prices are rising and the US dollar is falling, but is this the natural relationship between these two assets? Taking a look back at the two prominent oil shocks of the past four decades (1973 and 1979), we see that this is not necessarily the case.

1973 Oil Crisis: Initially Dollar Bullish, Eventually Dollar Bearish

In 1973, oil prices jumped 134% when the members of the OAPEC, which is OPEC plus Egypt and Syria, announced that they were no longer shipping oil to nations that supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt. This effectively shut down exports to the US, Western Europe and Japan. As a result, prices rose significantly to account for the sharp reduction in supply. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Qatar unilaterally raised prices by 17 percent and announced production cuts after negotiations with major oil companies.

USD Vulnerabilities

Some questions will be discussed here, is the EUR headed Back to 1.60? and can the GBP remain in the levels of 1.97-1.98 and higher?

The Vulnerabilities of the US Dollars
The US Dollars weakened significantly this past week as rising oil prices revealed the vulnerabilities of the United States economy. Companies are beginning to struggle and have been forced to come up with more creative ways to deal with the energy crisis. With crude oil prices hitting $135 a barrel and gasoline in many states topping $4 a gallon, US companies are making cuts across the board. Ford Motors Co for example plans on reducing production while American Airlines will be lowering capacity by 15 percent and adding bag charges. According to the futures market, some traders even expect gas prices to hit $7 to $8 a gallon. However the US is not alone in having to deal with the oil crisis which is one of the major reasons why the dollar has weakened. Over the past few weeks, the market had been slowly pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, there was a growing consensus that other central banks may need to begin or continue to cut interest rates. The surge in oil prices and hawkish comments from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia dramatically altered the outlook for these central banks. With strict inflation targets, traders came to realize that interest rates for these 3 countries will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future and as a result, currency rates adjusted for these expectations. In the coming week, the vulnerabilities of the US economy may become even more apparent. The US markets are closed for Memorial Day on Monday, but we still have a busy week ahead of us with consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods, first quarter GDP, personal income, personal spending and Chicago PMI due for release. We expect most of these numbers to be dollar bearish as US consumers continue to struggle under the weight of deteriorating personal finances.

Can The USD Bullish behavior continue with Fed Hike Forecasts Fading?

Credit Market - What's going on basically?

After a boost of top economic event risk, the USD has come through this past week with a more promising outlook for growth as well as diminished potential for a Fed rate hike this year. After the policy board announced its intentions to hold the benchmark lending rate at 2.00 percent and offered rhetoric that was more or less in line with the group’s middle-of-the-road commentary from previous months’ statements, the probability that the central bank would raise rates by the end of the year dropped from 71.6 percent to 59.9 percent. However, with evidence that the financial and credit markets are stabilizing, economic activity is turning up from the worst and upstream inflation is cooling, the Fed may be emboldened to tighten well before the consensus and continue to raise rates to a level well beyond the 75bp over the next 12 months overnight interest rate swaps are currently pricing in.
Dollar will probably be on another rally soon.

USD Countertrend Decline Should Last a Few Days

USD Countertrend Decline Should Last a Few Days
countertrend USD decline should be underway reaching EURUSD 1.5083, GBPUSD 1.5250, and USDJPY 107.90.
The EURUSD reached 1.4815 this morning. The drop from 1.5701 is in five waves and is most likely wave three within a five wave drop from 1.6039. A corrective forth wave advance is expected to unfold over the next several days. forth wave usually reach at least the forth wave of one less degree (1.5083 in this case). The 38.2% of three is also a common terminal pointer for forth waves (1.5155 in this case).

CAD High Reward to Risk Trade

CAD High Reward to Risk Trade
Currently, there is a high reward / risk short USDCAD opportunity. The EURUSD remains in a range, but the recent rally is corrective. This corrective advance could very well be part of a larger corrective advance however.
Not much has changed regarding the EURUSD this morning. We wrote yesterday that "the drop from 1.5701 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave 3 within a 5 wave drop from 1.6039. A corrective 4th wave advance is expected to unfold over the next several days. 4th wave usually reach at least the 4th wave of one less degree (1.5083 in this case). The 38.2% of 3 is also a common terminal point for 4th waves (1.5153 in this case)." Although a larger correction to the mentioned levels is preferred, the advance from 1.4815 is clearly in 3 waves and therefore corrective; leaving the EURUSD vulnerable to additional weakness as long as price is below 1.4981.
Things are playing out as expected with the USDJPY. "Bigger picture, we maintain that wave Y (the third wave in a 3 wave advance from 95.72) is underway from 103.76 and will end in the 113.25-116.65 zone (Fibo levels from the 124.13-95.72 drop) and give way to a long term reversal. The rally from 103.76 is probably the first zigzag in a double zigzag (as wave Y), so expectations are for a drop to reach the 38.2% of 103.76-110.40 (107.86)." The USDJPY fell to 108.36 this morning but we favor additional weakness with the first objective being 107.86 and the second 107.10.
The GBPUSD has plunged and is nearing the longer term support levels that we have mentioned in recent months near 1.85. The short term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.9034. It is worth mentioning that 13 day rate of change is at its lowest level since August 1997. When we do get an upward correction, it will probably be sharp.
The USDCHF has nearly reached the initial objective (already) of 1.0986 (the 100% extension of .9647-1.0624/1.0010. A reaction lower is expected to occur off of this line. There is potential support near 1.0740.
The AUDUSD decline is nothing has continued and counting short term waves is an exercise in futility right now. The pair may test the January (and 2008) low of .8512 before we see a rebound. Longer term expectations are for the drop to reach .6770 but there will be corrections along the way. It is not safe to enter short at this level since the risk of a large and sharp correction are simply too high.
The NZDUSD spiked lower this morning, touching the 161.8% extension of .8215-.7536/.7921. Short term channel support should lead to a larger advance from near current price. Resistance begins at .7082.

Euro Profitability chance against 1.4672

Euro Profitability chance against 1.4672
As long as price is above 1.4672 (ideally, price remains above 1.4744), we still suggest bullish and expecting even a minor rally to at least 1.4980 if you don't count the Fibonacci zone, which does not begin until 1.5168.
Support line is at 1.4770 coming much below there would begin to put in doubt the bullish outlook, if so, still a risky game unless support line will reach and be stable for a while.

Professional Tutor by Forex Worldwide Training and Support

Professional Tutor by Forex Worldwide Training and Support
There are plenty of self-selected experts online promoting their secret method to succeeding in the world of investing. A careful look at this market, however, reveals a tragic truth: These are the same old stories retold by hucksters looking to earn a buck. They jump on a particular stock that did well, they “reverse engineer” the trend line, they have their system ghostwritten, and then they promote “a forex training system like you’ve never seen before”.

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Introduction to Trading Forex

Foreign Exchange

This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as a bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.

As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading.

Overview

Foreign exchange, Forex or just FX are all terms used to describe the trading of the world's many currencies. The Forex market is the largest market in the world, with trades amounting to more than USD 3 trillion every day. Most Forex trading is speculative, with only a low percentage of market activity representing governments' and companies' fundamental currency conversion needs.

Unlike trading on the stock market, the Forex market is not conducted by a central exchange, but on the “interbank” market, which is thought of as an OTC (over the counter) market. Trading takes place directly between the two counterparts necessary to make a trade, whether over the telephone or on electronic networks all over the world. The main centres for trading are Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and New York. This worldwide distribution of trading centres means that the Forex market is a 24-hour market.